The Government’s ambition for one million evs might be more spin than substance, but the next decade will bring change, writes Geraldine Herbert The sale of new petrol and diesel cars is to be banned in 2030. This is just one of the measures included in the proposed Climate Action Bill that aims to drastically reduce emissions. The new legislation will not only enshrine the end date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, but it also includes a provision to stop the granting of NCTs on all non-zero emission cars from 2045. If passed, the new laws are aimed at accelerating the transition to electric vehicles, but with EVs currently accounting for less than 3pc of new car sales, the switch will mean profound changes, and gives rise to a host of questions. Many are sceptical that the Government’s target of electrification can be achieved and it has been criticised as unworkable. It is likely that the EU will stall any plans to phase out our fossil-fuel cars. Denmark proposed to do the same last year but was blocked by the EU. A change in EU law would be required for the Irish government to pass any legislation banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. A spokesperson for the Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment said: “It will be necessary to engage with the European Commission as we frame the provision for Ireland’s Climate Bill to ensure that it will be compatible with the evolving EU legal framework.” Given the car industry’s considerable influence on EU deliberations, a Europe-wide ban would seem unlikely in the short term.   One million Evs is wildly ambitious  The Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) has expressed concern and argues that supplying one million EVs within 10 years is impossible owing to the inability of carmakers to produce that many vehicles. Within the Irish motor industry, there are complaints about the lack of consultation, the risk of undermining the market for new cars and the impact such a ban might have on used-car values. There is no doubt the figure is wildly ambitious and, while it is difficult to make projections for the EV fleet size by 2030 with an average of 126,000 new cars sold each year, the target of 840,000 electric passenger cars is a significant slice of the 1.2 million that could potentially be sold over the decade. Many will recall the overly optimistic and unfulfilled EV projections made by the Government for 2020. The Government’s ambitions, for now, are likely to be thwarted by the high prices of EVs, the lack of availability, unreliable supporting infrastructure and the lack of choice. With an unclear pathway to achieving this goal, a more realistic approach might have been to set a target in terms of a percentage of new car sales, for example 15% of new cars sold to be electric by 2022, rising to 30pc by 2025.   The government cannot dictate the pace of change In reality, the Government cannot dictate the pace of change. Most car manufacturers envisage a reliance on fossil fuels for many years and are working toward a much later deadline for the phase-out than 2030. However, stringent EU regulations from next year will compel carmakers to develop environmentally-friendly modes of transport. From 2021, the fleet average that all new cars must meet is 95g of CO2 per km. For every gram of CO2 that carmakers are above that limit, the fine will be the number of grams over the limit multiplied by the number of cars they registered in the EU the previous year. Despite potentially...